from dollars to petro-euros in the news
IRAN IS CHENEY'S NEXT TARGET
It's the financial threat of Iran introducing a euro-based energy
exchange.
by Allen L Roland, Ph.D
http://www.opednews.com
Iran is Cheney's next target ( note , I did not mention Bush who is
the cheerleader for the Cheney/Rumsfeld cabal ) and the reason Iran
is next has nothing to do with a nuclear threat and everything to do
with the financial threat of Iran introducing a euro-based energy
exchange.
Stay with me ~ this is high powered global gamesmanship and Ryan
McGreal , Raise the Hammer, nails it in this short but most
informative expose'.
Excerpt: " One of the major unstated reasons the United States
invaded Iraq was to stop Saddam Hussein from trading oil for euros,
which he had begun in 2000. Hussein actually made more money selling
oil for euros, as the euro appreciated 17 percent against the dollar
between 2000 and 2003. Other countries in the region, particulary
Iran and Syria, began public musing about switching from dollars to
euros around the same time.... All three countries were subject to a
barrage of threats from the United States government, but only Iraq
went through with the switch, and it was summarily invaded. One of
the US government's first acts in Iraq was to switch oil sales back
to dollars."
Allen L Roland
Iran in the Crosshairs
By Ryan McGreal
http://www.raisethehammer.org/index.asp?id=133
08/24/05 "RTH" -- -- Starting in 2006, Iran will start up an "oil
bourse", or a stock exchange for trading energy, that will be based
on the euro, not the US dollar. While this may seem innocuous, it
will be a grave risk to continued American global hegemony.
Petrodollar Hegemony
Today, most oil trading takes place on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) and the London-based International Petroleum
Exchange (IPE). Since the 1970s, the OPEC countries have all agreed
to sell oil for US dollars only. This means every country that wants
to buy oil must first acquire enough US dollars to buy what it needs.
Year after year, America imports much more than it exports. It must
pay out that difference (its current accounts deficit) in dollars.
Last year, the US ran a current accounts deficit of over $600
billion USD; this year, it's expected to increase to $700 billion.
If there were no good reason for other countries to buy all those
American dollars, then the dollar would decline in value until the
US economy could no longer afford to import goods from abroad. This
is what happens when other countries run large current accounts
deficits over long periods.
However, the deal with OPEC means other countries have no choice but
to buy all those excess American dollars, which props up the value
of the dollar and allows the American "import economy" to go on year
after year. Effectively, America's main export is US dollars, and it
is absolutely imperative to preserve a captive market for those
dollars among oil-consuming countries.
The continued viability of the US economy depends on it. Americans
can still afford to consume because their economy is suffused with
cheap imports; a falling dollar will raise the prices of imported
goods. At the same time, Americans enjoy some of the lowest oil
prices in the world, largely due to the petrodollar arrangement.
This has skewed the American vehicle market toward gas-guzzling but
profitable SUVs and light trucks.
Selling Oil for Euros
One of the major unstated reasons the United States invaded Iraq was
to stop Saddam Hussein from trading oil for euros, which he had
begun in 2000. Hussein actually made more money selling oil for
euros, as the euro appreciated 17 percent against the dollar between
2000 and 2003. Other countries in the region, particulary Iran and
Syria, began public musing about switching from dollars to euros
around the same time.
All three countries were subject to a barrage of threats from the
United States government, but only Iraq went through with the
switch, and it was summarily invaded. One of the US government's
first acts in Iraq was to switch oil sales back to dollars.
Now, Iran plans not just to sell oil for euros, but to create an
exchange market for parties to trade oil for euros. The oil bourse
will provide a euro-based price standard, the way West Texas
Intermediate crude (WTI) and North Sea Brent crude do today. To the
extent that the balance of reserve holdings starts to shift from
dollars to euros, that's very bad news for America's system of
dollar hegemony.
Iran is taking a calculated risk that enough countries have an
interest in a petro-euro market to contain American aggression. Many
central banks are already quietly shedding their dollar reserves,
nervous that America's economic fundamentals ($500 billion federal
deficit, $700 billion current accounts deficit, $4.5 billion federal
debt, record business and personal debts, zero savings) cannot be
sustained for long, and hoping to insulate themselves from what they
see as an inevitable recession. The US dollar has declined by a
third against the euro since 2000, despite the petrodollar
arrangement.
At the same time, Europe is eager to enjoy more of the "virtuous
circle" that comes from supplying a major reserve currency: a ready
market for its currency and guaranteed reinvestment as euro-holders
plant their money in European markets. Vladimir Putin, Russia's
president, has also expressed interest in switching from dollars to
euros. Russia would benefit from getting paid in a stronger
currency, and it would represent a political victory over America
after fifteen years of watching its clients and assets in the oil-
rich Caspian region co-opted by American expansion.
Nuclear Politics
Iran may, indeed, be attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. However,
it also has a "legitimate" interest in developing nuclear power,
since its own oil reserves are already post-peak and it aims to
continue in its role as an energy exporter. Iran is a signatory in
good standing to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has
openly informed the International Atomic Energy Agency of its
intentions as requried by the Treaty.
However, Iran's presumed attempt to acquire nuclear weapons is only
the politically acceptable excuse for America's threats. The real
danger is that Iran will lay down the foundation for a post-
hegemonic international energy industry in which America is merely
one of many players. If Iran is, in fact, developing nuclear
weapons, it is doing so to acquire a deterrent against exactly this
kind of American encroachment.
Indeed, recent world events have only enforced the notion that a
nation's successful efforts to acquire nuclear weapons confer
respect and status, not the opprobrium it deserves. India, a growing
economic power that possesses a nuclear arsenal and refuses to sign
either the NPT or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), has just
been rewarded for its efforts by US President Bush, who has agreed
to "work to achieve full civil nuclear energy cooperation with
India." This is a straightforward violation of the NPT, which
forbids signatories from exchanging nuclear materials or support
with non-signatories.
If Iran really is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, is it any
wonder why? Look at the advantages that having nuclear arsenals have
given to US allies India, Pakistan, and Israel, all of which have
benefitted immensely from a playing field tilted in their favour by
their ability to project devastating power. As official hysteria
about Iran's intentions escalates in volume and intensity, remember
the real force undermining the moral authority of the NPT: the big
nuclear 'have' countries that still refuse either to apply the ban
consistently or to take any meaningful steps of their own
toward "general and complete disarmament" - ostensibly the NPT's
ultimate goal.
Ironically, America originally invaded Iraq - a poor, defenseless
country - partly to send a message to other oil producing countries
not to rock the petrodollar system, but the real message for small
countries is that they need to present a credible deterrent threat
or risk being ignored and/or invaded.
Further Reading
From Petrodollars to Petroeuros: Are the Dollar's Days as an
International Reserve Currency Drawing to an End? Strategic
Insights, Volume II, Issue 11 (November 2003)
Iraq, the Dollar and the Euro, Hazel Henderson, The Globalise, June
02, 2003
The Real Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq: A Macroeconomic and
Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth William Clark, January
2003 (Revised March 2003, with Post-war Commentary January 2004)
US Dollar Hegemony Has to Go Henry Liu, Asian Times, April 11, 2002
www.allenroland.com
Allen L Roland is a practicing psychotherapist, author and lecturer
who also shares a daily political and social commentary on his
weblog http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/ and website
www.allenroland.com He also guest hosts a monthly national radio
show TRUTHTALK on Conscious talk radio www.conscioustalk.net
found at
http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_allen_l__060104_iran_is_chene
y_s_nex.htm
Doomsday for the Greenback
Posted: 2006/01/04
From: uruknet
America's capital is not in Washington DC. In fact, it is not
geographic location at all. It is the greenback, the epicenter of
the global rule. The dollar is the cornerstone upon which the mighty
pillars of empire rest. At the same time, the greenback is the
greatest hoax in human history; a worthless scrap of paper buried
beneath a mountain of debt.
A preemptive attack on Iran would "provoke other industrial nations
to strategically abandon the dollar en masse"… "in an effort to
thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing their desperate strategy
of dominating the world's hydrocarbon energy supply." William R.
Clark "Petrodollar Warfare; Dollars, Euros and the upcoming Iranian
Oil Bourse"
The Federal Reserve is the financial headquarters for the cartel of
multinational banking establishments. The confederation of banks in
the Fed underwrites the exploitative activities of the world's main
industries and sets rates in a manner that best serves their
objectives. This is how the bankers perpetuate the system of
economic hegemony and apply the shackle of debt and dependence to
the planet's most destitute countries. The Federal Reserve is every
bit as critical to the maintenance of the empire as its political
counterparts in Washington or its blood-brothers in the US Military.
It is the largest of the empire's three gears; economic, political
and military, which mobilize the might wheel of state terror.
If we look carefully at the Iraq war, the main financial
institutions stood squarely behind the hostilities and did their
best to create a hospitable economic environment for aggression. The
Federal Reserve dropped the prime rate to a paltry 1.5% just 6
months before the Iraq invasion to keep the American economy purring
along while Bush dragged the nation to war. The bloody footprints
for Iraq lead straight to the oak-panel doors of America's primary
lenders even before they trail off to the bastions of America's
energy giants.
There's a reason for this. The main impetus for the war was not
petroleum, but greenbacks and the future of a currency that is
underwritten by $8 trillion of debt. The only way to safeguard its
dominance is to back up the listing dollar with boatloads of oil.
And, that is exactly the plan.
The Capital of Empire
America's capital is not in Washington DC. In fact, it is not
geographic location at all. It is the greenback, the epicenter of
the global rule. The dollar is the cornerstone upon which the mighty
pillars of empire rest. At the same time, the greenback is the
greatest hoax in human history; a worthless scrap of paper buried
beneath a mountain of debt. It is only through the skillful mix of
politics, diplomacy, and brute force that the grand deception is
maintained. As America's fortunes grow more tenuous, the probability
of attacks on the dollar will increase exponentially. Even now,
nations are conspiring to knock the dollar from its lofty perch and
introduce a more equitable system.
At present, the greenback serves as the world's reserve currency,
the main medium of exchange. This allows the US to stack up enormous
debt while avoiding the pitfalls of skyrocketing interest rates or
hyper-inflation. The $2 billion of borrowed wealth that props up the
faltering empire every day comes primarily from the economic
powerhouses Japan and China. This means that America's profligate
spending is financed by the labor of some of the most poorly paid
workers in the world.
Ironically, the massive trade deficit suggests that sweatshop
workers in Kwantung Province are now bankrolled by the criminal
occupation of Iraq.
Every greenback carries with it the accumulated weight of two
centuries of war, slavery, and ethnic cleansing of Native Americans.
It is the flaccid script that has fueled 50 years of covert
activities, coup d'etats, and third-world death-squads. It churns
through the arteries of the empire to the furthest most extremities
where torture and abuse are carried out beneath the tri-colored
standard. It is strewn across the empire like the myriad gulags that
now speckle the planet. It is the heart of the beast; a venom-
pumping organ with arteries strung across the globe like the
concertina-wire that surrounds Falluja, Samarra and Tal Afar.
Eventually the stately images of Lincoln and Washington will be
stripped from the currency; replaced with the looming specter of
Guantanamo's gun towers or the iconic figure of an Abu Ghraib
prisoner, hooded in sackcloth, arms outstretched in Christ-like
submission, wires draped from his hands and feet. These are the
freshly minted symbols of the new realm, the republic of terror.
As the empire extends its withering grip to the world's last
resource-centers, the dollar is coming under increasing scrutiny. It
is the dollar that facilitates the perennial war and the vast
expansion of military force; just as it is the dollar that binds
together the constellation of American colonies that function
exclusively in the interests of their Washington overlords. The
asymmetrical warfare that is approaching will put the greenback
squarely in the crosshairs; the weal-link in America's coat of mail.
Hugo Chavez knows this, as did Saddam; that's why he switched to the
euro 6 months before "Shock and Awe". Now, Putin is trading oil in
euros and Iran will open an oil bourse in petro-euros in March. For
Iran, its actions are tantamount to a declaration of war. Already,
America's proxy Israel has threatened to attack in March. Is it mere
coincidence that that is the same month Iran's oil bourse is
scheduled to open?
Of course, not. The empire requires a steady diet of petrodollars to
maintain its gluttonous appetite for debt. If the oil-producing
nations switch to euros, the dollar would freefall like a wingless
gull and America would be trapped in a bottomless vat of red ink.
America's prodigious dept has made the war for the world's dwindling
resources an existential struggle that makes a retreat from Iraq
impossible. If America's debt is not propped up with oil the anemic
dollar would crumble and the American economy would shatter like
glass.
In William R. Clark's "Petrodollar Warfare; Dollars, Euros and the
upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse", Clark outlines the problems the dollar
faces if Iran proceeds with its plan to use a euro-based oil trading
exchange. The new Iranian bourse would compete head-on with the New
York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London's International
Petroleum Exchange IPE) giving international buyers an option
of "buying a barrel of oil $60 on the NYMEX or IPE or 45 to 50 euros
via the Iranian bourse." Clark calls this the Federal
Reserves "biggest nightmare" as it would precipitate a face-off
between the dollar and euro and fundamentally change the dynamics in
the world's largest market.
"In essence, the US will no longer be able to effortlessly expand
credit via US Treasury Bills, and the dollars demand-liquidity will
quickly fall." This will "challenge the hegemony currently enjoyed
by the financial centers in both London and New York."
In other words; doomsday.
Clark also notes that "both Russia and China significantly increased
their central bank holdings of the euro, which appears to be a
coordinated move to facilitate the anticipated ascendance of the
euro as a second world reserve currency." This would effectively end
the petrodollars hegemony as the "monopoly oil currency".
The world is preparing for a seismic shift in the global power-
structure, but Washington believes it can forestall the change
through military force.
This threat of the nascent Iranian oil-exchange greatly increases
the likelihood of a unilateral attack by the US. Clark anticipates
that this may "provoke other industrial nations to strategically
abandon the dollar en masse"…"While central bankers throughout the
world community would be extremely reluctant to 'dump the
dollar'"… "They would likely move in tandem on the currency exchange
markets in an effort to thwart the neoconservatives from pursuing
their desperate strategy of dominating the world's hydrocarbon
energy supply."
Some variant of Clark's scenario will undoubtedly transpire pending
an American attack on Iran. The world will not confront the empire
militarily, but neither will they stand idly by while vital oil
resources are put at risk. A coordinated assault on the dollar is an
extreme, but probable consequence.
The vulnerability of the dollar, skittering atop an ocean of red
ink, has become the Achilles heel of the empire. Washington may
believe that its weakness is well-concealed behind a wall of high-
tech weaponry and media propaganda, but potential adversaries will
certainly know where to strike if they are forced to respond.
America's future has grown increasingly uncertain because of the
reckless militarism of its leaders. An attack on Iran is certain to
incite an asymmetrical war that will target the greenback;
dislodging it from its lofty perch.
When the dollar collapses, the baling-wire of economic coercion that
keeps the empire sewn together will quickly unravel.
Courtesy and Copyright © Mike Whitney
found at http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=500582
VENEZUELA'S BOLIVARIAN MOMENT - ITS PROMISE AND PERILS
by Stephen Lendman Thursday, Jan. 12, 2006 at 10:19 AM
A review of the Bolivarian Revolution achievements and threat to
Hugo Chavez from the U.S
VENEZUELA'S BOLIVARIAN MOMENT - ITS PROMISE AND PERILS - by Stephen
Lendman
Venezuela today, under its democratically elected President, Hugo
Chavez Frias, is imbued with the spirit of Bolivarianism and his
Bolivarian Revolution. It's based on the vision of Simon Bolivar,
the Caracas born 17th and 18th century general who defeated the
Spanish, liberated half of South America and believed in the
redistributive policies that characterize the Chavez government. It
also hopes to overcome what Bolivar perceptively characterized as
the imperial curse "to plague Latin America with misery in the name
of liberty."
Chavez and his Movement for the Fifth Republic Party (MVR) have
created the beginnings of a mass social and political revolution
based on participatory democracy and social justice. In a nation in
which 80% of the people are poor by any measure, Chavez is a
populist hero with mass public support outside the minority middle
and upper classes and business interests. He openly proclaims his
desire and intent to transform Venezuela into a nation based on
democratic socialism as an alternative to its capitalist past. In
fact, however, his policies are more gradualist and closer to the
European style social democracy than a textbook type socialist
state. And since he took office, the private sector is a larger
percent of the total economy than before his election, although
Venezuela's oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) and
backbone of the economy, is state owned. Nonetheless, instead of
previous governments' policy of recycling the nation's petrodollars
to the U.S., Chavez is using them to grow the Venezuelan economy and
fund his social programs. It's little wonder he engenders the great
displeasure of the Bush administration intent on stopping him. It's
already tried to do it 3 times and failed.
Chavez was first elected in December, 1998 with 56% of the vote and
began his presidency in February, 1999. From the start, he began
working to implement his vision by fulfilling one of his campaign
promises to hold a nationwide referendum. This was done to let the
people decide whether to convene a new National Constituent Assembly
to draft a new constitution that reflected Chavez's political
ideology. It passed overwhelmingly and was followed 3 months later
by elections to the Assembly to which members of Chavez's MVR and
selected allied parties formed the Polo Patriotico or Patriotic
Axis. It won 95% of the seats enabling Chavez and his allies to
draft the new 1999 constitution that changed the country's official
name from Venezuela to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and set
the nation on its new and revolutionary course.
The new constitution was put to a nationwide vote in December, 1999
and overwhelmingly approved. It took effect one year later and
established the foundation and legal basis for President Chavez to
move ahead with his desired structural changes for political,
economic and social justice. A key provision of the new constitution
(in Articles 83 - 85) mandated quality health care as a "fundamental
social right and...responsibility of the state...to guarantee
it...to improve the quality of life and common welfare." It proposed
doing it by establishing and administering a national public health
system proscribed from being privitized. The constitution also
banned discrimination, established the principle of participatory
democracy for all Venezuelans, guaranteed free speech and the rights
of the indigenous population, and mandated that the government make
quality education available to all as well as housing and an
improved social security pension system for seniors.
Chavez gained traction to begin implementing his policies in the
elections held in July, 2000 for the new constitutionally mandated
and less powerful unicameral National Assembly in which the Chavez
coalition won a two-thirds majority. Chavez himself ran for a new 6
year term (instead of the 4 year one under the former constitution)
and was reelected with 60% of the vote. This victory gave Chavez and
his government a mandate to move ahead with his plan to transform
the nation in the ways explained below.
THE BOLIVARIAN CIRCLES - THE HEART OF PARTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY
Democracy literally means government by the people. It's the rule by
and for common, ordinary people to insure the rights of the
majority. In Venezuela, Bolivarian Circles reflect that spirit
through direct volunteer public participation in the democratic
process. Articles 166 and 192 of the new constitution establish
citizen assemblies as a constitutional right to let people to fight
for their rights. They allow ordinary people the right to
participate in governing along with their elected officials. Founded
as a result of a presidential call for them, these Circles in 2003
had over 2 million members. Many Circle activities are currently
taken up by the various Misiones (Missions) that now comprise the
heart of the government's social programs. The Circles though play
an important part in administering Mision programs in the
communities and neighborhoods. They're autonomous and function
independently of political parties with government support but no
direct government funding. Their purpose is to defend the Bolivarian
Revolution and its constitution primarily on a local level. They
also encourage and support people with common interests to organize
through cooperatives, associations, committees, neighborhood groups
and other formations to be partners with their elected officials in
the political process and help form the policies that directly
affect their lives and well-being.
Bolivarian Circles have included community and labor leaders working
cooperatively with the usual disenfranchised people on local issues
of providing health care, education, feeding the hungry, helping
small business and much more. In addition, President Chavez
implemented Plan Bolivar 2000 to allow the President authority to
mobilize the Venezuelan Armed Forces to be used in poor areas of the
country to provide health care, food, construction equipment, school
tutoring and other services to those most in need.
The Chavez government is also promoting the spirit of cooperation
further by encouraging privately owned companies to allow employees
more direct say in and control over company operations in return for
the government providing added working capital. Under the Chavez
plan, companies agreeing would include workers on their boards and
share profits with employee cooperatives. So far, almost 200 mostly
small companies in need of financial help have voluntarily agreed to
adopt this co-management plan, and the government hopes to attract
many more.
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT MISSIONS UNDER CHAVEZ
The Bolivarian Revolution has significantly improved the lives and
welfare of the Venezuelan poor, the great majority of the population
and Chavez's base of support. They include a broad array of vital
and innovative social programs called Misiones (or Missions) that
include health care, education, food, housing, land reform, job
training, micro-credit and more. The Chavez government has used its
considerable oil profits and increased tax revenue to fund these
programs. In 2004 state oil profits were $25 billion because of high
oil prices and are likely much higher in 2005 as prices continued to
rise and are still high. Many oil analysts, in fact, see continued
high demand for a shrinking supply of world oil likely to keep
prices for this commodity high and eventually go much higher. If so,
Chavez will get the revenue he needs to continue and expand what he
calls a "new socialist revolution." Some of its elements - the
important missions - include the following:
--Mision Bario Adentro (Mission Inside the Neighborhood)
This is a series of initiatives deployed in 3 distinct stages to
provide free, comprehensive and high-quality community health and
dental care in hospitals and clinics (aided by 20,000 Cuban
doctors). More than 500 centers providing medical care have been
built, all of them well equipped for the job. This mission also
provides preventative medical help and advice to the millions of
poor people in the shantytowns and barrios. It also links health to
the economy, good nutrition, food security, culture, sports,
education, and the environment and stresses the importance of the
participation of local organizations and doctors living and working
in the same communities.
--Mision Mercal
This program provides access to high quality produce, grains, dairy
products and meat at affordable prices. It also provides the poor
with better access to nutritious, safe, organic locally and
nationally grown foods as well as attempting to increase Venezuela's
food sovereignty.
--Mision Robinson I
This mission uses volunteers to teach the poor to read and write. In
2004 it had raised the literacy rate to an impressive 99% of the
population having so far enrolled nearly 1.4 million people, nearly
1.3 of whom have successfully completed the program. In the
Americas, only Venezuela and Cuba have virtually eliminated
illiteracy. In the U.S., the Department of Education estimates that
over 20% of the population is functionally illiterate.
--Mision Robinson II
This mission was a continuation of Mision Robinson I and seeks to
consolidate the literacy rates achieved as well as provide primary
education in other areas. It has enrolled 1.2 million people and
graduated a large majority of them with an elementary school
education.
--Mision Ribas
This program at nearly 29 thousand education centers around the
country provides a high school education to Venezuelans of all ages
enabling them to receive a high school equivalency degree.
Enrollment has reached nearly 1.5 million.
--Mision Sucre
This mission provides access to higher education to all Venezuelans
with a high school or equivalency degree. It has enrolled nearly
275,000 people in various university level programs, and since 1999
has established 5 new universities. Unlike in the pre-Chavez era,
education now is completely free through the university level and
has been a boon to school enrollment.
--Misiones Guaicaipuro and Habitat
The purpose of Mision Guaicaipuro is to restore communal land titles
and human rights to the country's poor and indigenous peoples as
well as defend their rights against resource and financial
speculation by dominant business interests. It's run by the Ministry
of Environment and Natural Resources and has become the nation's
largest organized social movement. This program has led to the
establishment of over 5,000 land committees representing 5 millions
Venezuelans (20% of the population).
Urban Land Committees (CTUs) and the law allowing their creation
stipulate that Venezuelans who live in homes they built on occupied
land (the case for nearly all the poor) may petition the government
for title to the land. This policy affects up to 60% of the
population, and, for the first time ever, has given the poor in the
barrios the legal right of ownership of the land they live on.
Through mid-2005, 84,000 titles have been issued to 126,000 families
benefitting about 630,000 people. However, this is just a modest
beginning affecting about 6% of the barrio population.
Through this program, the Chavez government believes it's repaying a
social debt to the poor barrio inhabitants, who in the past 50 years
have built more homes (on occupied land) than the government.
Granting them titles to this land is the government's way of
recognizing and legalizing their contribution to Venezuelan society.
This right is written into the new constitution (Article 82), and
the program relieves the government of much of its responsibility to
build public housing for the poor to help relieve a severe housing
crisis.
Along with granting land title to the poor who have built their own
homes, Mision Habitat is the government's other initiative to help
provide public housing for the poor without homes. Its goal is to
build thousands of new and free housing units and develop integrated
housing zones that provide access to all social services including
health care and education.
--Mision Vuelvan Caras (Turn Around)
This is a cooperative program between the people and the government
and is intended to transform the country socially and economically.
It's involved in training workers to give them needed skills for
future employment. Its main objective is a nation more focused on
social needs and achieving a higher standard of living for all
Venezuelans.
THE VENEZUELAN ECONOMY UNDER CHAVEZ
It's not hard to understand why Hugo Chavez currently has the
highest approval rating of any president in the Americas - 77% based
on the latest polling numbers. His government's social programs
explained above are providing vital services for the millions of
poor that they never had before. And to make those programs possible
the economy is performing very well.
In the 28 years before Chavez was elected, Venezuelan per capita
income fell 35%, the worst decline in the region and one of the
worst in the world. Since the Chavez government took office in 1999,
the decline has been halted and per capita income has been flat
through early 2004. It likely has risen since then as a result of
the significant economic growth since late 2003. Venezuela's
National Institute of Statistics (INE) reported that in 2004 the
economy grew by 17%. It then expanded by 7.5% and 11.1% respectively
in the first two quarters of 2005 and about 10% in the third
quarter. This was a major turnaround from the period preceding it
that included the crippling oil strike of 2002-03 and the
destabilizing effects of the short-lived coup deposing President
Chavez for 2 days in April, 2002. During this period of growth,
unemployment dropped from 14.5% in September 2004 to 11.1% one year
later. Poverty levels also fell, and these data don't include the
enormous benefits to the poor from Chavez's social policies that
have significantly improved their lives and welfare.
Chavez's ability to fund his Missions has been greatly aided by the
sharp rise in oil prices since 2002. Venezuela is one of the world's
leading oil producers and exporters and has the largest hydrocarbon
(oil and gas) reserves in the Western Hemisphere and the largest
known reserves in the world outside of the Middle East. Since
conditions stabilized following the aborted coup, the economy grew
by 17% in 2004 and over 9% (quarter over quarter) in the first 9
months of 2005. This was the fastest growth in the hemisphere.
The government has also managed to increase the taxes it collects,
even during the difficult oil strike causing a deep recession in
2003. It's done it by requiring both foreign and domestically owned
companies to pay the taxes they owe. Venezuela's Oil Ministry is
currently seeking additional tax payments it believes the nation is
entitled to receive and will ask the National Assembly later this
year to raise the income tax rate from 30% to 50% on 4 foreign owned
heavy oil projects in the Orinoco river basin. These projects
account for a fifth of Venezuela's total oil production. In 2004,
the government renegotiated service agreements 3 of the 4 foreign
owned oil companies had with state owned PDVSA. Only ExxonMobil so
far has declined to go along. Under new joint venture terms, foreign
oil companies are limited to a minority 49% stake, reserving
majority ownership for PDVSA. These new agreements became effective
on January 1.
In another move just announced that won't please the U.S., the
Venezuelan Central bank approved using the euro to diversify away
from the U.S. dollar. This move will allow the monetary authorities
to make payments and purchases in euros as freely as with dollars
and help the country reduce its dependence on the U.S., one of
President Chavez's goals.
The revenues from high oil prices and taxes collected have helped
the government run a budget surplus while maintaining a high level
of social spending. Currency controls imposed in 2003 have also
stemmed capital flight, and now by approving the use of the euro,
Chavez is taking one more step toward asserting the independence and
sovereignty Venezuela seeks and deserves. As a result of these
efforts, the nation's public and foreign debt are moderate, and over
$30 billion of reserves have been accumulated, and are likely
rising, that can be used as a buffer if oil prices fall.
ALBA - THE CHAVEZ ALTERNATIVE TO THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (WTO)
AND U.S. CRAFTED TRADE AGREEMENTS
Hugo Chavez is pursuing his own alternative plan to U.S. led
neoliberalism that promotes economic policies benefiting corporate
interests but at the expense of ordinary people, especially in
developing nations. He calls it ALBA - the Bolivarian Alternative
for the Americas. It's aim is bold and innovative and in direct
contradiction to the so-called "free market, free trade" agenda
followed by the dominant developed nations (the Global North)
especially the Triad nations - the U.S., European Union and Japan.
ALBA's goal is to achieve a process of comprehensive integration
among Latin American nations with the aim of developing "the social
state" to benefit ordinary people, not the privileged elite. At its
heart, it's based on the principles of complementarity (not
competition), solidarity (not domination), cooperation (not
exploitation) and respect for each nation's sovereignty free from
the control of other nations and large corporations. Venezuela has
recently joined with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay in the
Mercosur trading alliance that should strengthen ALBA further and
increase the overall benefits of regional trade for the 5
participating nations and others being encouraged to join with them
like Bolivia.
The trade agreements already adopted, like NAFTA, and those proposed
like the FTAA and the Triad nation proposals and framework agreement
at the just concluded so-called "Doha round" sixth WTO Ministerial
Conference in Hong Kong only do the opposite. They serve the
interests of giant transnational corporations in the Global North.
The Hong Kong "agreement" left most major issues unresolved, and no
important concessions were made to the developing nations. This is
just the latest betrayal of promises made to the Global South and
will be devastating to those nations bullied to accept it.
Negotiations will now be continued at WTO Headquarters in Geneva in
secret, but little further progress is expected. Twelve years of
NAFTA have left carnage in Mexico, and WTO mandated current trade
practices (especially in agriculture and services covered under
GATS) and IMF and World Bank instituted structural adjustment have
caused growing poverty and human misery throughout the developing,
overexploited world. To help eliminate or at least reduce this
extreme inequity and improve the lives of ordinary people throughout
Latin America, President Chavez has proposed his revolutionary ALBA
alternative.
ALBA is based on participating nations uniting in solidarity for the
benefit of empowering their people, providing essential goods and
services, achieving real economic growth at the grassroots and thus
improving the lives of ordinary people and hopefully eliminating
poverty. A key feature of the plan is the exchange of goods and
services outside the usual international banking and corporate
trading system. One example of this has been the exchange of
Venezuelan oil and building materials to Cuba paid for in kind by
Cuba sending 20,000 doctors to work in medical clinics and hospitals
in the barrios as well as staffing literacy programs to teach
Venezuelans to read and write. Venezuela is also currently
negotiating an ALBA-type agreement with Argentina to trade its oil
for Argentine cattle and dairy products. In both examples, no hard
cash or currency changes hands. Participating nations can either
trade with each other in these barter-like transactions or purchase
with currency at reduced and affordable prices. Both parties in the
transaction gain and their people reap the benefits.
Hugo Chavez has been at the epicenter of this innovative change and
is enlisting support of other leaders in the region to join with
him. Discussions have been held about establishing a Bank of the
South to finance real development without the burden of debt. Also,
innovative programs are being created in agriculture, health,
education, energy security and more to overcome the problems created
by decades of structural adjustment and corruption and centuries of
colonization. At the recent Summit of the Americas, Chavez proposed
an Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty plan and offered $10 billion
dollars over the next decade to finance it.
For ALBA to succeed it will have to overcome major obstacles. The
Bush administration will not sit idly by and just watch a
continental restructuring take place that will harm U.S. corporate
interests. For the U.S. and its corporate allies, Hugo Chavez poses
a significant threat to their welfare. They will certainly try to
overcome it by any means necessary as they have done many times in
the past successfully, but so far, 3 unsuccessful attempts to unseat
Chavez.
Despite clear U.S. intent and a Venezuela - U.S. power mismatch,
don't write a Chavez obituary just yet. His Bolivarian spirit is
spreading and may become too much to counter even for the colossus
from el norte. One view of things comes from Yale Senior Research
Scholar Immanuel Wallerstein in his February, 2004 Nation Magazine
article. In it Wallerstein expressed his belief that "neoliberal
globalization has had its day; it is now dead." Despite the
inconclusive results from Hong Kong that hadn't yet taken place,
Wallerstein believes the old system of all "take" and no "give" by
the Global North is over. "It was more or less buried at Cancun in
September, 2003", he wrote. For the South to open its markets to the
North, it will now demand the North reciprocate. A key goal of
Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution is to assure that happens.
It should be noted that Venezuela was chosen as the site for the
sixth World Social Forum as well as the second Social Forum of the
Americas to be held in Caracas the week of January 24 - 29, 2006.
These 2 events, which organizers hope to repeat annually, draw many
thousands of attendees and many noted progressives and activists. As
they grow in popularity, as the World Social Forum has been doing,
they may also serve to help the Chavez government consolidate and
expand his Bolivarian Revolution and encourage other developing
nations in Latin America and elsewhere to begin their own.
LIKELY U.S. PLANS FOR REGIME CHANGE IN VENEZUELA
Destabilizing and overthrowing foreign leaders and governments it
opposes is nothing new for the U.S. Ever since the National Security
Act of 1947 established the Central Intelligence Agency (and
National Security Council - NSC) replacing the disbanded wartime OSS
intelligence agency, the CIA has engaged in activities far beyond
information collection and analysis. It's been involved many times
in covert efforts supportive of U.S. foreign policy to include
regime change in nations whose leaders were not subservient to U.S.
interests. Beginning in 1953, CIA operative Kermit Roosevelt,
grandson of Theodore Roosevelt and cousin of Franklin, successfully
engineered a coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq of Iran
after he nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company following a
dispute about revenue sharing. The CIA then helped carry out another
successful coup ousting President Jacobo Arbenz in Guatemala in 1954
because of his modest land reform program the giant United Fruit
Company in the country opposed. Since then to the present, this
agency has had a long and tainted record of helping to destabilize
and topple those governments the U.S. wishes to replace. Much of
that has occurred in Latin America, most often by coup or
assassination often disguised as an "accident" (like
an "unfortunate" plane crash).
Investigative journalist and author Eva Golinger has uncovered top
secret CIA documents, obtained through Freedom of Information Act
(FOIA) requests, of U.S. involvement in the April, 2002 two day
aborted coup temporarily ousting President Chavez. It involved CIA
complicity and an intricate financing scheme beginning in 2001
involving the quasi-governmental agency National Endowment for
Democracy (NED), funded entirely by the Congress, and the U.S.
Agency for International Development (USAID). These agencies, in
turn, provided funding to Chavez opposition groups (USAID through
its Office of Transition Initiatives - OTI) which, in turn, were
involved in staging the mass and violent street protests leading up
to and on the day of the coup. NED and USAID also funded other
destabilizing activities such as the crippling oil strike in late
2002 and 2003 and the August, 2004 recall referendum that failed to
unseat the President. The documents Golinger obtained clearly showed
the U.S. State Department, National Security Agency and White House
had full knowledge of these activities and must have approved of
them.
As it did in Haiti in February, 2004 after the U.S. led coup ousted
President Aristide, the U.S. falsely claimed in April, 2002 that
Chavez had resigned when, in fact, he'd been arrested by complicit
high level officers in the Venezuelan military. After his arrest and
removal from the Palacio De Miraflores (the Presidential Palace)
Pedro Carmona, head of Venezuela's confederation of business and
industry (Fedecamaras) declared himself President, immediately
dismissed the National Assembly and other democratic institutions
and began to annul the Chavez Bolivarian reforms. All of this
enraged Chavez supporters who rallied en masse, got the support of
others in the Venezuelan military and forced the reinstatement of
President Chavez two days later.
Since his return to office, President Chavez has clearly been on the
U.S. target list as evidenced by U.S. involvement in the 2002-03 oil
strike and failed 2004 recall referendum. Although unsuccessful in
three attempts, U.S. intervention in the past has shown itself to be
innovative and able to adopt new tactics after failed
destabilization attempts. Because controlling Venezuela with its
vast hydrocarbon reserves is so important to the U.S., it seems only
a matter of time before the next attempt is made to depose Hugo
Chavez. A fourth intervention most likely would occur either when
Chavez runs for reelection in 2006 or possibly before he completes
his current term.
Hugo Chavez himself believes there's a U.S. plot to assassinate him.
He may be right. There's also some credible evidence of a 2004 coup
attempt by neighboring Columbian forces who were arrested in May of
that year at a ranch in Buruta just outside of Caracas. Those
arrested said they were sent there to prepare an attack against a
Venezuelan National Guard base to steal weapons and fully arm a
3,000 force militia.
Latin America expert James Petras, professor emeritus at Binghampton
University, New York, has written that the U.S. has a strategy to
overthrow Hugo Chavez by military force and at the same time destroy
the Cuban revolution in a "two step" approach - "first overthrow the
Chavez government in Venezuela, cut off the energy supply and trade
links (to Cuba) and then proceed toward economic strangulation and
military attack." He also believes the U.S. will employ
a "triangular strategy" to overthrow Chavez - "a military invasion
from Columbia, U.S intervention (by air and sea attacks plus special
forces to assassinate key officials) and an internal uprising by
infiltrated terrorists and military traitors, supported by key
media, financial and petrol elites." In advance of this, the U.S.
has provided $3 billion to Columbia in military aid (supposedly for
the "drug war") so it could triple the size of its military to over
275,000, add new helicopters and bombers and receive "advanced
military technology."
Prior to both the April, 2002 coup attempt and failed recall
referendum and during the oil strike, the U.S. intensified its anti-
Chavez rhetoric to condition the U.S. public to accept his forced
removal as a positive change had it happened. That same demonizing
rhetoric can be expected again in advance of the next U.S. attempt
to oust Chavez and, in fact, it's already begun. In early 2005, CIA
chief Porter Goss testified before the U.S. Senate Select Committee
on Intelligence on "Global Intelligence Challenges in 2005: Meeting
Long-Term Challenges with a Long-Term Strategy." In his testimony he
referred to Venezuela as a "potential area for instability" and
a "flashpoint." He also claimed Hugo Chavez was "consolidating his
power by using technically legal tactics to target his opponents and
was meddling in the region." Other administration officials claimed
Chavez is "a negative force to the region" and a "new breed of
authoritarianism." And without a touch of irony, they have also
called the Venezuelan government an "authoritarian democracy",
a "threat to democracy" and an "elected dictatorship" (clear
oxymorons - Orwell would be pleased). And there's more from Deputy
Secretary of State Robert Zoellick stating about Chavez: "You win
the election, but you do away with the rule of law, you pack the
courts and (Chavez) is carrying out anti-democratic activities" like
a dictator. The complicit U.S. corporate media, always in lockstep
as a willing and shameless co-conspirator, has echoed these anti-
Chavez sentiments portraying Chavez as a regional menace and threat
to U.S. interests and security. If this type rhetoric continues and
intensifies in the new year, it may be a clear sign something is
brewing.
The U.S. also has established military bases in Peru, Ecuador, the
Dominican Republic and has 500 troops with planes, weapons and
equipment in Paraguay in advance of a new base planned for that
country capable of handling large aircraft and accommodating 16,000
troops. It also has forces and radar stations in other Latin
American countries including 800 troops in Columbia with the Bush
administration's stated intent in 2004 to raise the number to 1400.
And, of course, there's the controversial base at Guantamamo, Cuba
used, in part, as a convenient offshore prison for "enemy
combatants."
This enhanced military strength in South America may indeed be in
advance of a planned assault to remove Hugo Chavez. It may also be
aimed at newly elected Bolivian President Evo Morales (an Aymara
Indian and first ever indigenous president in Bolivia) and his
Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS) who has expressed his intent
to nationalize (but not confiscate) his country's large gas reserves
and other resources (especially water) to keep more of the country's
revenues at home to develop the economy and provide more services
for its people. Morales won impressively with 54% of the vote
(nearly double the 28.5% of his leading right wing opponent) and
with a voter turnout of 84.5%. It's likely that Morales actually
received far more than a 54% majority because of a long history of
voter manipulation and fraud in Bolivia and elsewhere in the region.
The fact that he won so impressively only showed his support among
the people was so strong, not even stealing some of it could stop
him. And his popularity affected the legislative outcome as well as
Morales' MAS won a majority 64 seats in the 130 seat Chamber of
Deputies. Morales will be inaugurated on January 22 and begin
serving a 5 year term.
An early ominous sign against him is reflected in a Wall Street
Journal editorial claiming Morales' election "is more bad news for
liberty in Latin America." It went on to say the cocaleros (Quechua
indigenous campesino coca farmers) he headed was a "radicalized
political force....against all things American" and "the Morales
economic platform doesn't promise a future to Bolivians, only
revenge." In his first post-election diplomatic trip abroad, Morales
chose to visit Fidel Castro to discuss relations between Bolivia and
Cuba. Morales also plans to meet with Hugo Chavez and leaders of 7
other countries that invited him to visit at their expense
(including China and France) as he begins a world tour in early
January. The Bush administration will surely use at least the Castro
and Chavez meetings in any future hostile Morales rhetoric to help
justify any action against him they may have in mind.
Morales has only just been elected, so how he will, in fact, govern
is uncertain. However, in early interviews he said his first move as
President will be to overturn Supreme Decree 21060, the 1985 measure
making Bolivia the first Latin American country to adopt "free
market" and privatization policies by decree. Morales said he will
work with the new Chamber to pass a new law governing economic
policy. He also plans to impose new taxes on the rich. Should his
plan as it's implemented attempt to model his government after
Venezuela's and succeed in doing it, he no doubt would then become
another U.S. target for removal.
Whether the U.S. will proceed with the plans Professor Petras says
it's made is unknown, but it may become clearer in the new year.
Under the best of circumstances, however, achieving them won't be
easy despite the overwhelming U.S. military advantage. The mass
public support Hugo Chavez enjoys would create chaos and probably
rebellion in the country should a new U.S. approved leader take
office and try to reverse his policies. Furthermore, the Bush
administration may be restrained from acting against Chavez for at
least the reasons below:
--the U.S. is already bogged down in Iraq in endless conflict.
--It's ratcheting up the rhetoric against Iran and Syria possibly in
advance of an assault against either or both countries.
--The great cost of the Iraq war, along with large growing and
unsustainable budget and current account deficits, may preclude
congressional and public support for added adventures.
--Bush's approval ratings have plummeted, and he's losing support
from his base and own party, and the military high command
wants "out" of Iraq.
--The newly revealed illegal warrantless domestic spying as well as
illegal break-ins and surveillance of mosques and Muslim businesses
and homes supposedly searching for nuclear materials (both clear
violations of the Fourth Amendment) authorized secretly by Bush has
finally aroused the ire of Democrats and some Republicans. They also
violate the 2001 U.S. v. Kyllo Supreme Court decision that ruled the
use of thermal imaging to detect heat lamps in a residence is
a "search" as defined under the Fourth Amendment and requires a
warrant. The decision was written by Justice Antonin Scalia.
--The ongoing Special Counsel investigation may lead to further
indictments beyond Lewis Libby possibly up to the highest levels of
the administration before its completed.
--The Jack Abramoff financial and political scandal involving Tom
Delay and potentially many others in government may be one of
biggest ever in Washington.
--The systemic use of torture authorized at the highest level
and "rendition" flights to torture centers in countries permitting
it have outraged the world. In addition, the weak McCain amendment
will do little to stop it, and the newly enacted Graham Amendment
that annuls detainees' sacred constitutionally guaranteed habeas
rights will prevent torture victims from seeking redress in U.S.
courts. These new laws only add to the outrage.
--And, some in Congress are beginning to mention impeachment.
Already, lawyer John Bonifaz has authored a new book making the case
for impeachment entitled - "Warrior-King: The Case for Impeaching
George W. Bush." And University of Illinois law professor Francis
Boyle, a scholar and recognized expert in international law and
human rights, agrees, and in January, 2003 prepared a "Draft
Impeachment Resolution Against President George W. Bush" in proper
form to be presented in the House of Representatives. In addition,
and surprisingly, even Barron's Magazine, published by Dow Jones &
Co. that also publishes the Wall Street Journal, raised the
possibility in December of impeachment on its editorial page. It
expressed its concern with a president acting on his own in
violation of the Constitution and said..."putting the president
above the Congress is an invitation to tyranny. The president has no
powers except those specified in the Constitution and those enacted
by law." It's also worth noting that John Dean, a Republican and
former Nixon White House counsel, expressed deep concern that George
Bush was the "first U.S. president (ever) to admit to an impeachable
offense."
In light of all this and the clear sound of an administration
unraveling, even George Bush and those closest to him may think long
and hard before undertaking new ventures, the outcomes of which are
most uncertain. Stay tuned.
Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at
lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net
found at http://www.indybay.org/news/2006/01/1795100.php
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